Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5860…15d7 sports 108 markets active 4d ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%54W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2
other 5% −$6
politics 5% −$22
crypto 1% −$2
tech 1% −$7
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 42% 42% -28.6%
≤30d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 42% 42% -28.6%
≤90d 28 +3.4% -6.5% 43% 43% -15.2%
all 108 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 45% -11.5%
10% -20.5% 40% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 31% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses54 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage311d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +158%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $9 −$3 -28%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 09 $3 −$2 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $3 $0 -14%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$3 -65%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $5 +$6 +110%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 07 $1 $0 -12%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $2 +$1 +72%
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Utica Comets Apr 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $2 +$4 +284%
ELH: Dynamo Pardubice vs. Sparta Prague Apr 03 $6 +$3 +50%
DEL: EHC Red Bull Muenchen vs. ERC Ingolstadt Mar 24 $6 −$5 -90%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $7 +$4 +56%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $3 +$2 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $2 +$6 +295%
Lightning vs. Flames Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Colorado Rockies Mar 22 $2 $0 -30%
Miami Open, Qualification: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Kings vs. Rangers Mar 17 $7 +$5 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $2 $0 +24%
Miami Open, Qualification: Bianca Andreescu vs Suzan Lamens Mar 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $21 −$15 -70%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 16 $5 +$8 +162%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $1 $0 +31%
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Stanford Cardinal Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Senators Mar 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Santiago: Franco Agamenone vs Guido Justo Mar 10 $1 $0 +10%
Santiago: Jaime Faria vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Mar 10 $1 $0 +26%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Santiago: Franco Agamenone vs Guy Den Ouden Mar 09 $5 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 08 $10 −$6 -60%
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave Mar 08 $14 $0 +4%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 63¢ $2 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $7 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $9 7d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 56¢ $3 39d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 66d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 67d
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 69d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 70d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 71d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 71d
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Utica Comets SELL Belleville Senators $0 73d
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Utica Comets BUY Belleville Senators 53¢ $3 74d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 74d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 74d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records