Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x5859…a9b0 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+6%) realized +$161 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%32W / 17L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$8
14 days+$307
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$343
other 26% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 67% -9.2%
≤30d 36 +2.7% -7.0% 69% 69% -0.5%
≤90d 49 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 61% -5.0%
all 49 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 61% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 61% -5.0%
10% -19.5% 41% -14.0%
15% -27.3% 22% -22.4%
20% -34.4% 14% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$44 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses32 / 17
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage33d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Matthew Dellavedova Matthew Dellavedova 72¢ 99¢ $130 $178 +$48 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $111 +$46 +42%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $76 +$47 +62%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 19 $101 +$46 +46%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $91 +$22 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $95 +$10 +11%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $238 −$85 -36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 −$175 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$28 +21%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $137 +$52 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$26 +26%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $76 +$45 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $167 +$28 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $189 −$157 -83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +237%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $38 +$8 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $24 +$8 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $156 +$27 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $165 +$24 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $214 +$55 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $149 +$43 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $123 +$90 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $15 −$14 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $146 +$23 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $43 +$13 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 09 $146 +$42 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 23 $15 −$14 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $93 −$91 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Orgryte IS win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $13 +$14 +105%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $17 +$14 +79%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? May 18 $52 +$25 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 17 $1 $0 -39%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Matthew Dellavedova BUY Matthew Dellavedova 72¢ $131 1h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 70¢ $111 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $123 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $76 17h
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk BUY Julia Adams 68¢ $101 22h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $91 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $95 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $72 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 26¢ $58 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $166 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $176 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $131 3d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 72¢ $137 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $103 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $76 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $157 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL No $4 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 45¢ $12 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $169 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.30 · official $178.66 (match) · 101 history records