Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5858…dc6b sports 184 markets active 8h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20,143 (+20%) realized +$20,143 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%83W / 99L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$356est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,399
7 days+$3,440
14 days+$3,440
30 days+$3,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$23,206
other 5% −$3,134
crypto 0% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.6% -5.3% 44% 44% +4.3%
≤30d 52 +4.6% -5.3% 44% 44% +4.3%
≤90d 52 +4.6% -5.3% 44% 44% +4.3%
all 182 +2.4% -7.4% 46% 46% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 46% +8.4%
10% -16.2% 46% -1.9%
15% -24.3% 45% -11.4%
20% -31.7% 45% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$628) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$753 vs −$436 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20,143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses83 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$356
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage136d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $511 +$148 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $329 +$541 +165%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,464 +$1,236 +84%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $526 −$526 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $386 +$564 +146%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $378 −$19 -5%
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $60 −$2 -4%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $214 −$211 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $229 −$225 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $327 +$476 +146%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $429 +$671 +156%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $457 −$450 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 +$195 +186%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,081 +$1,050 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $649 −$638 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $574 +$653 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,024 +$1,076 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,070 −$1,055 -99%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 +$513 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $645 +$486 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,112 +$1,009 +91%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $97 +$136 +140%
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$300 +300%
Gustavo Heide vs. Daniel Michalski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 −$202 -99%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $319 +$381 +120%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $318 +$285 +90%
Pedro Martinez vs. Daniel Rincon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Chris Rodesch: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $618 +$527 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $327 +$466 +142%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $585 −$572 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $705 −$117 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,039 −$1,024 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $495 −$492 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Nuno Borges vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 +$625 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $474 −$474 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $337 −$330 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $357 +$453 +127%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $356 −$356 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $277 −$277 -100%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $999 +$960 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $659 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $511 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $33 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $50 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $23 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $223 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $316 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,095 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $526 16h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $62 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $18 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $305 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $359 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 43¢ $4 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 43¢ $44 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 43¢ $87 20h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 52¢ $7 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 43¢ $131 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $11 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $100 20h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 52¢ $48 20h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 20h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 20h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 21h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 21h
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 53¢ $8 21h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 41¢ $12 28h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records