Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5856…28ea other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 22% +$2
politics 20% +$4
sports 8% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 9% -10.0%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $49 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $6 +$2 +31%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 20 $17 +$1 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Mar 03 $16 −$1 -4%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 35m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 18h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $43 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records