Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

58 0x5855…9c89 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$14 (-15%) realized −$21 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-47.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+73.2%	+56.7%	100%	100%	+56.7%
≤30d	1	+73.2%	+56.7%	100%	100%	+56.7%
≤90d	1	+73.2%	+56.7%	100%	100%	+56.7%
all	3	-42.3%	-47.8%	33%	33%	-33.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.8%	33%	-33.4%
10%	-52.8%	33%	-39.8%
15%	-57.3%	33%	-45.6%
20%	-61.5%	33%	-50.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +73% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage

Net worth$47

Realized−$21

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage114d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	70¢	81¢	$41	$47	+$7 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$23	+$17	+73%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Feb 28	$5	−$5	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Feb 28	$26	−$26	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	70¢	$41	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$23	2d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY No	2¢	$5	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	10¢	$20	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	5¢	$1	113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	5¢	$6	113d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.29 · official $47.29 (match) · 7 history records