Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5851…8ed8 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-20%) realized −$111 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%36W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$117
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$56
other 18% +$10
sports 16% −$43
crypto 12% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -8.9% -17.6% 61% 39% -33.7%
≤30d 58 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 38% -28.8%
≤90d 58 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 38% -28.8%
all 58 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 38% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 38% -28.8%
10% -25.3% 31% -35.6%
15% -32.5% 21% -41.8%
20% -39.1% 17% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses36 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 46m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 92¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.73 · official $12.73 (match) · 137 history records