Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5851…7313 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%7W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$4
other 14% −$2
sports 12% −$2
culture 6% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 14% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 14% -9.4%
all 59 -3.2% -12.4% 12% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage278d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? Feb 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $324 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $215 $0 -0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $333 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $223 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $108 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 03 $110 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $3 $0 -12%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $1 $0 -20%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $216 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 24h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $105 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $103 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $106 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $107 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 109d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 114d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $107 122d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $103 132d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 135d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 146d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $105 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $1.25 (match) · 279 history records