Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5845…f0af politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$279 (-7%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$22
sports 38% −$381
politics 11% +$24
crypto 3% −$8
culture 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 11% -18.6%
≤30d 18 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 11% -18.6%
≤90d 18 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 11% -18.6%
all 18 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 11% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 11% -18.6%
10% -26.2% 6% -26.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
20% -39.9% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$56 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 24 $32 −$4 -13%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 24 $54 −$36 -67%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $89 +$2 +3%
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 24 $114 −$8 -7%
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 24 $197 −$11 -6%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 24 $247 +$9 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $451 +$38 +8%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 23 $272 −$48 -18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $550 +$10 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $553 +$53 +10%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $125 +$38 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$18 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $435 −$428 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $150 −$9 -6%
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2 Jun 22 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? Jun 22 $52 −$10 -20%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $28 1h
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 17¢ $91 1h
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 56¢ $106 1h
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $186 2h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 82¢ $255 2h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $247 14h
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $197 15h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 16h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 26h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 28h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 34¢ $0 28h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $451 28h
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 59¢ $114 29h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $561 29h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 98¢ $550 30h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 36¢ $223 30h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $272 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $553 31h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 25¢ $163 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $418 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 34h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 36h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 37h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 37h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 37h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $435 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $141 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records