Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x5844…035a sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,351 (-16%) realized −$1,322 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$474
7 days−$573
14 days−$1,062
30 days−$1,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$822
other 25% −$180
crypto 15% +$102
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 42% -24.6%
≤30d 46 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 37% -29.0%
≤90d 55 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 38% -28.7%
all 55 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 38% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -28.7%
10% -21.8% 38% -35.5%
15% -29.4% 36% -41.8%
20% -36.3% 36% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$103 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized−$1,322
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions11
Markets (closed)55 / 78
History coverage66d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 41¢ 40¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $101 $85 −$16 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$352 +344%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 +$99 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$81 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$155 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$283 +277%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$139 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$28 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $102 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $103 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $103 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $102 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 13h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $103 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $103 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $102 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 10¢ $103 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $307 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 8¢ $103 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $103 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $205 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $205 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $307 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $103 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $103 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.15 · official $1,079.15 · 126 history records