Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5842…5e04 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$209 (-10%) realized −$203 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -17.0%
≤30d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -17.0%
≤90d 23 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -17.0%
all 23 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 30% -25.0%
15% -39.0% 26% -32.2%
20% -45.0% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$50 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 49¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$44 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $70 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $107 +$113 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $130 +$44 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $194 −$50 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $104 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $109 −$58 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $81 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $106 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $53 −$32 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$53 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $255 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$28 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $78 +$91 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $43 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $220 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $78 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $10.41 · 116 history records