Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5840…2401 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$103 (+5%) realized +$104 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$104
politics 4% −$9
other 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +48.5% +34.4% 50% 50% +18.0%
≤90d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 20% -24.2%
all 23 +8.7% -1.7% 61% 48% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 48% -5.0%
10% -11.1% 30% -14.1%
15% -19.7% 30% -22.4%
20% -27.5% 30% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$92 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage218d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ 64¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $34 +$66 +197%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $75 −$9 -12%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kokoro Isomura May 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $52 −$51 -98%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Mar 05 $51 +$35 +70%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 02 $145 −$145 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Feb 02 $81 +$64 +79%
Blues vs. Stars Jan 30 $50 +$31 +61%
Stars vs. Kings Jan 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Capitals vs. Blackhawks Jan 12 $101 +$76 +75%
Rangers vs. Capitals Dec 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Dec 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 22 $115 +$365 +317%
Golden Knights vs. Islanders Dec 19 $170 +$216 +127%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Dec 09 $143 +$27 +19%
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 04 $6 +$1 +18%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 04 $102 +$18 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 24? Dec 01 $5 $0 +3%
Jazz vs. Warriors Dec 01 $99 +$14 +14%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 24 $97 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ $60 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $44 10d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $0 38d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $34 39d
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Ilya Ivashka 93¢ $15 44d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $65 44d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $75 44d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 20¢ $52 60d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 55¢ $86 113d
Heat vs. Hawks BUY Heat 59¢ $51 126d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 53¢ $145 144d
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 56¢ $81 147d
Blues vs. Stars BUY Stars 62¢ $50 154d
Stars vs. Kings BUY Kings 47¢ $178 165d
Capitals vs. Blackhawks BUY Capitals 57¢ $101 168d
Rangers vs. Capitals BUY Rangers 42¢ $101 177d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $111 184d
Mavericks vs. Pelicans BUY Mavericks 51¢ $100 186d
Thunder vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $115 189d
Golden Knights vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 44¢ $170 199d
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans BUY Timberwolves 84¢ $143 204d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Thunder 85¢ $102 207d
Jazz vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 88¢ $99 214d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 24? BUY No 97¢ $5 214d
Thunder vs. Jazz BUY Thunder 93¢ $97 218d
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.05 · official $58.05 (match) · 40 history records