Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x583d…6143 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,265 (-52%) realized −$2,265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%19W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days−$2,540
14 days−$2,564
30 days−$2,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,990
crypto 42% −$482
sports 6% −$238
economics 2% −$70
world 1% −$6
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -54.7% -59.0% 29% 29% -71.4%
≤30d 15 -57.7% -61.7% 27% 27% -71.6%
≤90d 15 -57.7% -61.7% 27% 27% -71.6%
all 83 -37.0% -43.0% 23% 19% -68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 19% -68.5%
10% -48.5% 14% -71.5%
15% -53.4% 11% -74.3%
20% -58.0% 10% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$52 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses19 / 64
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage165d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $232 +$187 +81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,002 −$984 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $544 +$124 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $242 −$236 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $851 −$837 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $196 −$191 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 03 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 4PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4PM ET Mar 02 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 02 $15 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 02 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 02 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $0 $0 +62%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $0 $0 -21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $1 $0 -15%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Mar 02 $2 $0 -11%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 02 $2 $0 -10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $2 $0 +20%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $0 +$1 +171%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 18 $1 $0 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $0 $0 +22%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $0 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Feb 17 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 17 $3 −$1 -50%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $2 $0 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Feb 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 17 $3 −$1 -50%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $3 $0 -6%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 17 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $194 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $225 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,000 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records