Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x583c…86c0 crypto 1960 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$817 (-3%) realized −$1,230 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate76%1539W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day255.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,101
7 days−$1,282
14 days−$1,230
30 days−$1,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$905
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1773 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 71% -14.8%
≤30d 2037 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 71% -14.0%
≤90d 2037 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 71% -14.0%
all 2037 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 71% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 71% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 41% -22.2%
15% -29.4% 16% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1539 / 498
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2037 / 1960
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day255.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2037 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 3500 history records