trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +8.4% | -2.0% | 75% | 25% | +2.9% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 50% | 30% | -2.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 58% | 25% | -2.5% |
| all | 12 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 58% | 25% | -2.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 25% | -2.5% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 25% | -11.8% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 8% | -20.3% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -28.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 82¢ | 80¢ | $97 | $95 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $54 | $54 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 81¢ | 81¢ | $52 | $52 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? | Jun 18 | $57 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? | Jun 18 | $90 | +$22 | +24% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $56 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $33 | −$4 | -11% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $27 | −$5 | -17% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 30 | $2 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 30 | $6 | +$2 | +30% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +4% |