Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x5839…0201 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$3
politics 42% −$5
sports 13% −$39
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -6.2% -15.1% 35% 16% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 16% -10.6%
10% -23.2% 16% -19.2%
15% -30.7% 16% -27.0%
20% -37.5% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$970
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage622d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $590 $590 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $380 $380 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Braves vs. Nationals Sep 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $15 +$15 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $7 +$9 +127%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Albania Becomes Initiative Coalition win the most seats in th Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $4 $0 -5%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 -0%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $101 +$101 +100%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Dec 10 $66 +$39 +59%
Lakers vs. Heat Dec 05 $45 +$36 +80%
Pacers vs. Raptors Dec 04 $21 +$24 +113%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $39 −$39 -100%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $33 +$21 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $380 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $590 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $401 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $639 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $402 4h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $640 4h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 4h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 16h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 16h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 22h
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 51¢ $8 268d
Braves vs. Nationals BUY Nationals 44¢ $29 273d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $15 275d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $7 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 359d
Will the Albania Becomes Initiative Coalition win the most seats in th BUY Yes $1 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $5 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 400d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 405d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $5 406d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 407d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 409d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 411d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.51 · official $969.51 (match) · 91 history records