Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5838…0179 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$225 (+8%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$393
14 days+$487
30 days+$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$501
other 11% +$22
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.0% +1.3% 60% 60% +22.1%
≤30d 48 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% +16.7%
≤90d 48 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% +16.7%
all 48 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% +16.7%
10% -22.0% 44% +5.5%
15% -29.5% 44% -4.7%
20% -36.4% 42% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$18 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage25d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $65 +$60 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 −$55 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal leading at half Jun 23 $104 +$53 +51%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$41 +62%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$4 -73%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $169 −$131 -78%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $199 +$113 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$124 +98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $76 +$60 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $68 +$66 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$49 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 +$63 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 +$69 +150%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$27 -76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 +$32 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$24 +72%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $15 +$18 +121%
Georgia vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $24 +$22 +89%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $19 +$8 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $20 +$20 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $10 +$11 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $21 −$11 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 51¢ $126 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $65 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 63¢ $56 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U BUY 60¢ $156 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal leading at half BUY 66¢ $104 29h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $65 43h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 11¢ $1 43h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $5 45h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY 55¢ $178 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $38 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $169 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $199 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $52 3d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoi BUY 61¢ $122 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 50¢ $127 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $152 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 42¢ $81 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 41¢ $92 4d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $76 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Korea Republic to score first v BUY 39¢ $37 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Mexico BUY 36¢ $38 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: BUY 41¢ $59 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $68 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $73 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $123.81 · 103 history records