Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5830…5e72 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$23
politics 22% −$8
sports 6% −$15
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 117 -4.5% -13.6% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage91d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $247 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $435 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $389 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $398 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $413 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $412 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $404 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $425 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $410 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $431 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $214 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $221 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $207 −$3 -1%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $444 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 20h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $122 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 21d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.99 · official $168.99 (match) · 314 history records