Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x582f…9cd5 other 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-8%) realized −$631 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%70W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$63
14 days−$285
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$320
other 33% +$270
politics 17% −$367
culture 13% −$171
world 1% +$13
crypto 0% +$6
tech 0% −$12
economics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.3% -4.8% 64% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 115 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 36% -27.7%
≤90d 169 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 32% -25.2%
all 169 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 32% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 32% -25.2%
10% -22.1% 30% -32.3%
15% -29.6% 25% -38.9%
20% -36.5% 21% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses70 / 99
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions44
Markets (closed)169 / 213
History coverage51d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $69 $103 +$34 (+49%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 45¢ 60¢ $54 $72 +$18 (+33%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+2675%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+1500%)
Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2950%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? No 27¢ 56¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+107%)
Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-72%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+119%)
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $86 +$24 +27%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $80 +$10 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $9 −$7 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +340%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 4? Jun 11 $31 +$35 +116%
NBA Finals: Game 4 Opening Tip Winner Jun 11 $26 +$19 +70%
Will Lady Gaga attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $1 $0 -23%
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $14 +$4 +31%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 08 $140 −$137 -98%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +133%
Hoodwink Jun 07 $3 $0 +7%
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 07 $15 −$14 -96%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +160%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 07 $12 −$11 -92%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 06 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +59%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$3 +9%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Opening Tip Winner Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep? Jun 03 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 03 $188 −$161 -86%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $32 −$25 -79%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $72 +$72 +100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $14 −$11 -81%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $74 −$69 -93%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 01 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +57%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Will Yann Bisseck score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 31 $2 −$1 -30%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $207 −$203 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 56m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 56m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.68 · official $248.69 (match) · 966 history records