Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x582e…eb81 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-6%) realized −$142 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$31
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 33% -8.3%
≤30d 9 -33.1% -39.5% 22% 22% -15.1%
≤90d 9 -33.1% -39.5% 22% 22% -15.1%
all 9 -33.1% -39.5% 22% 22% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 22% -15.1%
10% -45.3% 22% -23.2%
15% -50.6% 22% -30.6%
20% -55.4% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$58 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $133 $129 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) Jun 24 $1,441 $0 -0%
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) Jun 24 $329 $0 -0%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $132 +$128 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $122 −$120 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $120 +$126 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $135 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $7 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $7 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $7 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $7 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $99 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $11 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $109 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.80 · official $128.80 (match) · 43 history records