Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x582b…1bb3 sports 173 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-7%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%93W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$127
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$115
crypto 7% −$8
world 3% −$24
tech 3% +$5
economics 3% −$2
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.3% -2.1% 75% 50% -17.1%
≤30d 52 +3.7% -6.2% 65% 56% -12.9%
≤90d 143 -2.6% -11.9% 58% 50% -16.0%
all 161 -4.4% -13.5% 58% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -16.8%
10% -21.8% 47% -24.7%
15% -29.3% 44% -32.0%
20% -36.3% 39% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses93 / 68
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions12
Markets (closed)161 / 173
History coverage109d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 62¢ 99¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+60%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $20 +$17 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +29%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 02 $9 +$8 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $10 +$8 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $20 +$12 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 02 $20 +$15 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $20 +$9 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$17 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$17 +86%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas May 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Rena May 21 $10 +$7 +67%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears May 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 68¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $1 11d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $10 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 58¢ $10 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $10 11d
Nanterre vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 54¢ $10 11d
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning BUY Harold Mayot 55¢ $10 11d
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 67¢ $10 11d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 62¢ $10 11d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Alexandra Eala 59¢ $10 11d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski BUY Khololwam Montsi 60¢ $10 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $20 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $20 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 11d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 52¢ $9 22d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY Cincinnati Reds 53¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.25 · official $78.25 (match) · 283 history records