Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
58 0x5829…5a3a sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+4%) realized −$86 · open +$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$363
other 9% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% +7.9%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% +7.9%
≤90d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% +7.9%
all 11 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 64% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 64% +7.9%
10% -18.5% 55% -2.4%
15% -26.4% 36% -11.8%
20% -33.6% 27% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$49 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 71¢ 89¢ $600 $752 +$152 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $403 +$140 +35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +17%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$26 -52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$47 +92%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$37 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $605 0m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $544 7m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 21m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 74¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 75¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $69 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 51¢ $51 28h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $101 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 34¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.11 · official $752.11 (match) · 25 history records