Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5825…af22 sports 618 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,687 (-4%) realized −$1,709 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%214W / 383L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$55
14 days+$10
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$875
crypto 27% −$203
world 21% −$285
sports 11% −$267
finance 7% −$269
politics 3% −$84
tech 2% +$225
economics 1% −$11
culture 0% +$5
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +18.5% +7.2% 35% 35% -3.4%
≤30d 66 +20.2% +8.7% 36% 35% -8.3%
≤90d 113 +10.0% -0.5% 39% 36% -12.6%
all 597 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 31% -12.9%
10% -25.2% 29% -21.3%
15% -32.5% 26% -28.9%
20% -39.1% 23% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$1,709
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses214 / 383
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)597 / 618
History coverage257d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $471 $491 +$21 (+4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 44¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $8 −$3 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $6 +$3 (+97%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$32 -63%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 25 $37 −$8 -21%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$21 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Jun 23 $10 +$45 +439%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $24 −$9 -36%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $97 −$39 -40%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $24 −$6 -24%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $6 +$17 +283%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $207 −$4 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 Jun 17 $73 −$5 -8%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 17 $19 +$5 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $272 −$35 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $21 +$32 +154%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 −$69 -68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $15 +$20 +134%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $71 −$27 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $336 +$24 +7%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 −$21 -55%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $49 +$6 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $325 +$227 +70%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 44¢ $30 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 45¢ $4 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY 33¢ $20 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $20 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $4 11h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $29 11h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 14h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 14h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both T BUY 42¢ $51 35h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND W BUY $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY 12¢ $15 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 34¢ $58 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 20¢ $4 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND BUY 18¢ $10 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $40 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $37 4d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $97 4d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.55 · official $570.15 · 1921 history records