Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x5822…8774
sports · 326 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$194,578 -128%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$194,121 · open −$1,323
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69,241
Realized−$194,121
Unrealized−$1,323
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses194 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions110
Markets (closed)437 / 326
History coverage3d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day1091.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 110 History 437 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196,891
7 days−$194,121
14 days−$194,121
30 days−$194,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 99¢ $13,799 $16,055 +$2,255 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 74¢ $13,121 $11,058 −$2,063 (-16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $8,013 $8,038 +$25 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,623 $4,621 −$1 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $3,069 $3,327 +$258 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 92¢ $2,894 $3,182 +$289 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 85¢ 100¢ $2,492 $2,917 +$424 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,788 $1,786 −$2 (-0%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $867 $868 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $823 $857 +$34 (+4%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? No 86¢ 88¢ $720 $740 +$20 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $712 $716 +$4 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $678 $681 +$3 (+0%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? No 80¢ 64¢ $817 $660 −$156 (-19%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $591 $587 −$4 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 62¢ $785 $581 −$204 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 64¢ $731 $573 −$158 (-22%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 80¢ 88¢ $516 $569 +$53 (+10%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $549 $547 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Qatar 93¢ 82¢ $596 $529 −$67 (-11%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 77¢ 78¢ $512 $520 +$7 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $516 $518 +$2 (+0%)
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $450 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $410 $412 +$2 (+0%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 93¢ $417 $394 −$22 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 13 $1 +$12 +1319%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 13 $1,699 −$1,699 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $482 −$482 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 13 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $30,852 −$30,852 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 13 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $392 −$392 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 13 $749 −$749 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $1,508 −$1,508 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 13 $4,478 −$4,478 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 13 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 13 $231 −$231 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 13 $1,923 −$1,923 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $694 −$694 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $221 −$221 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o Jun 13 $366 −$366 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $495 −$495 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $8,764 −$8,764 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,407 −$3,399 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,637 −$2,637 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $2,821 −$2,821 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $255 −$255 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$5,689
sports 30% −$2,063
world 16% +$10,162
politics 7% +$1,872
crypto 7% +$174
economics 1% +$5,235
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $9 0m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 93¢ $582 0m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 85¢ $24 0m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 85¢ $4 0m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 1m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 91¢ $14 2m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $199 2m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 2m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 3m
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 92¢ $115 7m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 21m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 23m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $51 23m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $52 30m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $52 30m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 30m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $383 32m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $52 33m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $468 33m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $81 34m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $248 34m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $682 35m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $289 35m
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? SELL No 96¢ $90 35m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $58 35m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 35m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 35m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $596 36m
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? SELL No 94¢ $34 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -28.4% -35.3% 44% 27% -66.2%
≤30d 437 -28.4% -35.3% 44% 27% -66.2%
≤90d 437 -28.4% -35.3% 44% 27% -66.2%
all 437 -28.4% -35.3% 44% 27% -66.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1091.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 27% -66.2%
10% -41.5% 13% -69.4%
15% ← realistic here -47.1% 7% -72.4%
20% -52.3% 5% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,240.93 · official $69,240.04 (match) · 3500 history records