Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x5821…7c51
sports · 988 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,652 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,915 · open −$263
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,797
Realized+$1,915
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses490 / 465
Est. fees paid−$609
Open positions33
Markets (closed)955 / 988
History coverage13d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day213.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 33 History 955 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days+$667
14 days+$1,915
30 days+$1,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $196 $404 +$207 (+106%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 48¢ $192 $194 +$2 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 38¢ $103 $131 +$28 (+27%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 88¢ $52 $91 +$38 (+73%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 68¢ 88¢ $51 $66 +$15 (+30%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Kansas City Royals 70¢ 80¢ $54 $62 +$8 (+15%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Houston Astros 65¢ 80¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 44¢ 84¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+92%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 89¢ 97¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 34¢ 32¢ $57 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 66¢ 100¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+51%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 42¢ 100¢ $21 $50 +$29 (+137%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Seattle Storm 72¢ 74¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 96¢ $32 $48 +$16 (+51%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 64¢ 58¢ $51 $47 −$5 (-9%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 67¢ 92¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+37%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Seattle Storm 68¢ 57¢ $50 $43 −$8 (-15%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Houston Astros 60¢ 64¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Seattle Storm 72¢ 42¢ $54 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Over 64¢ 55¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 4¢ $78 $26 −$52 (-66%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Under 31¢ 50¢ $16 $25 +$10 (+63%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 55¢ 47¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $102 +$3 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $53 +$18 +33%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $52 +$134 +261%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $37 +$13 +33%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 13 $32 +$18 +57%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $53 +$26 +49%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $104 +$12 +11%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 13 $64 +$36 +56%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $23 +$27 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $25 +$25 +100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $52 +$61 +117%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $53 +$29 +54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $44 +$6 +12%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $53 +$23 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $54 −$4 -8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $54 +$44 +82%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $52 −$2 -3%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $171 −$168 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $22 +$28 +122%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $44 +$29 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $50 +$34 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $53 +$6 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $105 +$39 +37%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $54 +$23 +43%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $26 +$22 +85%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $21 −$15 -70%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $34 +$66 +190%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $53 +$47 +89%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$2,184
other 2% −$265
crypto 1% −$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 81¢ $21 2m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 55¢ $28 4m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 68¢ $21 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $45 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $46 6m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $48 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $1 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $6 7m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 12m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 12m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 33¢ $17 13m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 53¢ $34 19m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 97¢ $50 19m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 97¢ $52 20m
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 70¢ $1 25m
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 70¢ $53 25m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $32 26m
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $6 30m
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $4 30m
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $2 30m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 32m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 72¢ $23 38m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 72¢ $27 38m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 72¢ $4 38m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 67¢ $6 39m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $96 41m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $100 41m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Seattle Storm 72¢ $48 42m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 68¢ $45 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 574 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 955 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 48% -5.5%
≤90d 955 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 48% -5.5%
all 955 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 48% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover213.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 48% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -14.6%
15% -26.5% 36% -22.8%
20% -33.7% 30% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,797.29 · official $1,791.24 (match) · 3500 history records