Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x581e…54fa crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,606 (-15%) realized −$1,606 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%48W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$485
14 days−$485
30 days−$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,937
other 1% −$72
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -39.9% -45.6% 17% 8% -90.8%
≤30d 12 -39.9% -45.6% 17% 8% -90.8%
≤90d 12 -39.9% -45.6% 17% 8% -90.8%
all 206 -4.9% -13.9% 23% 22% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 22% -28.0%
10% -22.2% 22% -34.9%
15% -29.7% 21% -41.1%
20% -36.6% 19% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$44 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,606
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses48 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage135d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $110 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $83 −$78 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$102 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6AM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET Mar 12 $100 −$41 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$65 +647%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2AM ET Feb 16 $92 −$35 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 16 $48 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1AM ET Feb 16 $14 +$16 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9AM ET Feb 15 $91 −$84 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $48 +$35 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 14 $90 −$34 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 14 $37 −$20 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 14 $29 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12PM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $91 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET Feb 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3PM ET Feb 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 13 $68 +$36 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$4 +43%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 13 $22 −$11 -53%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 13 $16 +$5 +32%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 1PM ET Feb 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$100 +998%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $107 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records