Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x581a…c719 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,299 (-4%) realized −$1,299 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$9,152
14 days+$1,254
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,581
other 1% +$101
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.4% +4.4% 62% 62% +63.0%
≤30d 19 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 53% -5.9%
≤90d 29 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 52% -13.9%
all 29 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -13.9%
10% -24.6% 52% -22.2%
15% -31.8% 45% -29.7%
20% -38.5% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,224) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$754 vs −$1,044 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$1,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage54d
Avg bet$979
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$18 +32%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$31 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$85 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$2 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $160 +$169 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $97 +$103 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $59 +$41 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,621 +$8,779 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $5,017 −$4,950 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $2,977 −$2,948 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $970 −$960 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $27 −$26 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $637 +$363 +57%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 26 $433 +$217 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $314 −$310 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $300 +$9 +3%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $813 +$307 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $38 +$26 +67%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $1,253 −$1,224 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $1,669 −$1,660 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $1,894 +$946 +50%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $1,410 −$1,392 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $635 +$465 +73%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $1,336 +$479 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $66 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 16¢ $4 7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 20¢ $5 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $24 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $16 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $16 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $132 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $18 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 34¢ $33 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $19 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $36 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $160 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $60 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2,026 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $493 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $8,102 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $557 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $4,456 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $135 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.08 · official $165.08 (match) · 72 history records