Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5817…987d sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$837 (-16%) realized −$813 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$249
14 days−$381
30 days−$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$821
other 8% −$116
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -19.8% -27.5% 53% 33% -30.5%
≤30d 98 -15.6% -23.6% 49% 39% -28.5%
≤90d 130 -13.1% -21.4% 52% 42% -25.0%
all 130 -13.1% -21.4% 52% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 42% -25.0%
10% -28.9% 30% -32.1%
15% -35.7% 23% -38.7%
20% -42.0% 22% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$32 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$813
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 63
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage44d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 30¢ $43 $19 −$24 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 +$12 +30%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $31 −$29 -94%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $30 +$38 +124%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $47 −$46 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $44 +$3 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 +$9 +26%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$3 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$6 +18%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $29 +$6 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$9 -37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$16 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$6 -12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$15 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$10 -26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 +$3 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 −$8 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$56 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$8 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $39 +$9 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $97 −$96 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $77 +$20 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $37 +$40 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$80 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $48 +$32 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $42 +$6 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $39 +$3 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $156 −$127 -82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $21 +$2 +10%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $88 +$14 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $90 −$77 -85%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $30 −$4 -14%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $41 +$50 +123%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $23 +$20 +86%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 08 $65 −$1 -1%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $96 +$28 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $25 +$26 +104%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $35 +$35 +103%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $36 −$28 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 37¢ $25 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $39 26h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh $2 33h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $31 39h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Texas Super Kings 100¢ $68 39h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 41¢ $7 43h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 45¢ $23 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 66¢ $47 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $35 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $35 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $35 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $32 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $29 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $41 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $41 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $35 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $40 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $16 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 56¢ $16 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.85 · official $18.85 (match) · 267 history records