Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5812…b4ec other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$16
world 29% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 7% +$9
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -9.3%
all 26 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 4% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage259d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $78 +$3 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $80 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $48 −$16 -33%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $24 +$9 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $6 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $3 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $20 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $28 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $22 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $36 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $16 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $50 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $51 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $51 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 30d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.46 · official $53.46 (match) · 100 history records