Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x580e…38cd sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$1,225 · open +$1,153
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$5,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,767
other 47% +$5,041
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.4% -26.1% 35% 32% -4.0%
≤30d 36 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 39% +1.5%
≤90d 36 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 39% +1.5%
all 36 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 39% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 39% +1.5%
10% -23.4% 36% -8.2%
15% -30.8% 36% -17.1%
20% -37.6% 33% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$677 vs −$383 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$5,153
Realized−$1,225
Unrealized+$1,153
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $500 $1,219 +$719 (+144%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1,000 $1,194 +$194 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $500 $953 +$453 (+91%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,000 $845 −$155 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $500 $559 +$59 (+12%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $500 $383 −$117 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $509 +$806 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,028 +$1,926 +95%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $513 +$82 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $513 −$500 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $507 +$454 +90%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $512 +$1,670 +326%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $509 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $507 −$500 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $181 −$180 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $511 −$500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $508 −$500 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $508 +$579 +114%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $510 +$919 +180%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $511 +$1,213 +238%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 20 $306 −$306 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $508 −$508 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $508 −$508 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 20 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $716 −$716 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $512 −$500 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $512 −$500 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $610 +$750 +123%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $609 +$545 +90%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$296 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $507 +$397 +78%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$147 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $927 −$8 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 1h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 20¢ $595 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 1h
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $509 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $507 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $139 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $41 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $511 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $507 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $510 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $508 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $510 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $508 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $103 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $103 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $512 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $510 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $512 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $716 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,153.16 · official $5,153.16 (match) · 79 history records