Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5809…e611 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$30 (+18%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$46
other 10% +$42
sports 6% −$10
politics 6% −$1
culture 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +60.6% +45.3% 60% 60% -12.1%
≤30d 5 +60.6% +45.3% 60% 60% -12.1%
≤90d 8 +23.0% +11.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
all 8 +23.0% +11.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 38% -18.3%
10% +0.6% 38% -26.1%
15% -9.1% 38% -33.2%
20% -18.0% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage47d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$42 +410%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 21 $5 −$1 -10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $1.05 (match) · 28 history records