Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x5803…af27
crypto · 380 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$189 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$116 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses160 / 215
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)375 / 380
History coverage111d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 375 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? No 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$86 +170%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 +$110 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$80 -89%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $28 +$21 +75%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 15 $100 −$71 -71%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 03 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 01 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 01 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $70 +$156 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$3 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 01 $3 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 01 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 01 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 01 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 01 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 01 $7 −$4 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 01 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 01 $8 −$2 -21%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$204
other 22% +$81
sports 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $137 31m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 5h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 6h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $66 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 90d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 9¢ $30 90d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 90d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 90d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 10¢ $29 90d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 103d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 103d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 103d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 35¢ $100 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +64.2% +48.5% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤30d 8 +64.2% +48.5% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤90d 9 +45.9% +32.0% 44% 44% +38.2%
all 375 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 35% -14.7%
10% -25.6% 31% -22.8%
15% -32.8% 26% -30.3%
20% -39.4% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.01 · official $87.03 (match) · 1126 history records