Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5803…3f3f sports 392 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,184 (+9%) realized +$1,236 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate72%277W / 106L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,221
7 days+$1,224
14 days+$1,224
30 days+$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,248
other 2% −$94
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +21.0% +9.5% 59% 51% +19.6%
≤30d 374 +6.8% -3.3% 72% 55% -1.6%
≤90d 383 +7.1% -3.1% 72% 55% -1.1%
all 383 +7.1% -3.1% 72% 55% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 55% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 39% -10.6%
15% -20.9% 22% -19.2%
20% -28.6% 13% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses277 / 106
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions9
Markets (closed)383 / 392
History coverage33d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Tommy Paul 69¢ 90¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+30%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Laslo Djere 66¢ 82¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Darja Vidmanova 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Gonzalo Bueno 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 24¢ 44¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Hannah Klugman 16¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 13¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears KT Wiz 29¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $51 +$93 +182%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $49 +$42 +86%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $39 +$27 +67%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $51 +$52 +102%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $6 +$4 +63%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $19 +$13 +66%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $27 +$18 +64%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $33 −$3 -10%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $17 +$25 +146%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $14 +$2 +13%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $44 +$67 +154%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $40 +$79 +199%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $8 +$4 +52%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $52 +$217 +415%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $52 +$552 +1054%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $19 +$16 +82%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $47 +$409 +867%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $26 +$34 +128%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $53 +$176 +330%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 21¢ $2 0m
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 21¢ $1 0m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 87¢ $2 0m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 87¢ $1 0m
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 23¢ $1 1m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 87¢ $2 1m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 87¢ $1 1m
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 21¢ $2 3m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 16¢ $1 7m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $1 14m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $1 15m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 64¢ $2 15m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $1 24m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 80¢ $1 26m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $1 27m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $1 29m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 64¢ $1 30m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $1 30m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 66¢ $2 31m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 70¢ $1 31m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $1 32m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $1 33m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 69¢ $1 35m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 69¢ $1 35m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $1 37m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $1 38m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 60¢ $1 38m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 63¢ $1 39m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 64¢ $1 45m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $2 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.77 · official $53.47 (match) · 3245 history records