Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57fe…94f9 weather 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-11%) realized −$177 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$104
14 days−$211
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$224
sports 3% −$7
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 50% -18.0%
≤30d 72 -5.1% -14.1% 56% 47% -20.6%
≤90d 109 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 42% -20.8%
all 109 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 42% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 42% -20.8%
10% -27.4% 29% -28.4%
15% -34.5% 23% -35.3%
20% -40.9% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage60d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? No 62¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$18 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$6 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$13 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$7 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$16 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$16 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $93 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$30 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $102 −$97 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$6 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$7 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.30 (match) · 278 history records