Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57fa…6a7c other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 235L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 21% −$21
politics 11% −$8
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage140d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $139 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $743 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $437 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $587 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $446 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $558 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $483 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $431 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 6h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 11h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 13h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 14h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 15h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 31h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 35h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 36h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 39h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.62 · official $60.62 (match) · 1450 history records