Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57f9…bcd9 sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,942 (+4%) realized +$2,941 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%45W / 45L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$761per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$726est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$521
7 days+$4,922
14 days+$6,285
30 days+$7,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$6,827
other 24% +$9,711
crypto 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +59.5% +44.3% 78% 72% +9.2%
≤30d 25 +67.2% +51.3% 76% 72% +9.2%
≤90d 90 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 46% -5.9%
all 90 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 46% -5.9%
10% -11.0% 42% -14.9%
15% -19.6% 40% -23.1%
20% -27.5% 32% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$485 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,941
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses45 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$726
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage72d
Avg bet$761
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 19¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+217%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $813 +$381 +47%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $807 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $567 +$247 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $110 −$107 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5,987 −$5,947 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $536 −$529 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,010 +$459 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $779 +$296 +38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $112 +$155 +138%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $87 +$111 +127%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,488 +$709 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $911 +$589 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $455 +$452 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $127 −$23 -19%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 18 $207 +$784 +378%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $687 +$1,793 +261%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $5,167 +$5,244 +102%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$493 +97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,010 +$357 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $814 +$1,089 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$424 +414%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $1,858 +$1,021 +55%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $3,577 −$124 -4%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $871 −$871 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $306 −$263 -86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $102 −$79 -78%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 20 $810 +$568 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $510 +$692 +136%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 19 $1,017 +$1,254 +123%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $1,009 +$405 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $3 +$6 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 May 10 $92 −$90 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 08 $177 −$175 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 07 $180 +$145 +80%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $170 +$11 +6%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 05 $34 −$33 -97%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $124 +$109 +88%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $433 −$108 -25%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5 May 04 $203 −$51 -25%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $333 −$50 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 94¢ $1,108 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $86 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $813 4h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $544 4h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 47¢ $263 5h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 72¢ $807 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $567 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $31 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $79 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5,987 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $536 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,469 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,010 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,074 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $577 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,007 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 88¢ $267 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $198 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $87 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $4,488 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $911 4d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $455 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 5d
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $991 5d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,480 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 352 history records