Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x57f5…c1c9 politics 1632 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%114W / 1029L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$68
14 days−$245
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$122
other 22% +$262
crypto 17% +$734
sports 14% −$273
tech 6% −$75
finance 3% +$58
culture 2% −$38
weather 2% −$46
world 1% +$70
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -23.1% -30.4% 9% 9% -30.5%
≤30d 752 +19.0% +7.7% 12% 12% +7.9%
≤90d 1143 +0.9% -8.7% 10% 10% -8.5%
all 1143 +0.9% -8.7% 10% 10% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 10% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 10% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 10% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$2 · ×11.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,107
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses114 / 1029
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions500
Markets (closed)1143 / 1632
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 1143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? No 10¢ 81¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+713%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 10¢ 79¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+703%)
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 92¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+662%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 11¢ 78¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+605%)
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 12¢ 86¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+599%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 81¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+579%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 11¢ 72¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+559%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 12¢ 90¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+650%)
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? No 9¢ 58¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+550%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 64¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+486%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 58¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+432%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 6¢ 14¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+160%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of June? No 12¢ 51¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+342%)
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 13¢ 57¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+338%)
Will George Pickens play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27? No 13¢ 53¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+322%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 50¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+321%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 12¢ 54¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+331%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 24¢ 92¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+285%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 11¢ 42¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+282%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 4¢ 17¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+297%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 44¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+271%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 23¢ 85¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of June? No 5¢ 16¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+215%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 38¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+212%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 +$14 +671%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 22? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 23 $2 +$13 +667%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$13 +641%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Jun 23 $2 +$28 +1362%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $2 +$15 +734%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 5h
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $2 5h
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY No 3¢ $2 6h
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 6h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY No 6¢ $2 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 5¢ $2 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 1¢ $2 6h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 92¢ $3 14h
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? BUY No 7¢ $2 16h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat? BUY No 10¢ $2 16h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY No 11¢ $2 16h
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat? BUY No 9¢ $2 19h
Will the Republican Party win the NC-10 House seat? BUY No 12¢ $2 20h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? BUY No 11¢ $2 20h
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? BUY No 12¢ $2 20h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 10¢ $2 23h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY No 12¢ $2 25h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $2 25h
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 11¢ $2 27h
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $14 31h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 92¢ $15 39h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 39h
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? SELL No 91¢ $30 41h
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY No 12¢ $2 43h
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 46h
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 46h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $0 46h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 92¢ $4 2d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 92¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,107.10 · official $1,114.08 (match) · 3500 history records