Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57f3…a536
crypto · 34 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage17d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$34
14 days−$31
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? No 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$3 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? May 28 $4 −$3 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$29
other 20% −$19
tech 11% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 38% -20.1%
≤30d 32 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 38% -18.9%
≤90d 32 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 38% -18.9%
all 32 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 38% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -18.9%
10% -29.6% 25% -26.6%
15% -36.4% 19% -33.7%
20% -42.6% 12% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.04 · official $37.04 (match) · 89 history records