Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57f3…a950 crypto 155 markets active 23h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate69%107W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -8.4% -17.1% 76% 61% -15.2%
≤30d 150 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 56% -11.6%
≤90d 155 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 55% -11.5%
all 155 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 55% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 55% -11.5%
10% -23.7% 26% -20.0%
15% -31.1% 10% -27.7%
20% -37.8% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses107 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage45d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 978 history records