Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57f3…3866 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$504 (+5%) realized +$503 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate82%53W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$132
14 days+$132
30 days+$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$469
crypto 1% −$7
other 0% +$10
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 75% -1.7%
≤30d 39 +4.4% -5.5% 79% 64% +1.1%
≤90d 65 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 57% -4.8%
all 65 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 57% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 57% -4.8%
10% -16.7% 26% -13.9%
15% -24.8% 18% -22.3%
20% -32.2% 8% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$45 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$503
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses53 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage57d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 75¢ 74¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $100 +$21 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $448 +$54 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $951 +$49 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$15 +238%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $74 +$27 +36%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $61 +$41 +67%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $78 +$23 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $169 +$25 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $11 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $89 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +23%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $1,005 +$200 +20%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $11 +$6 +58%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,002 +$83 +8%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $13 +$4 +34%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,004 +$132 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,003 +$41 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,002 +$85 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 26 $17 +$3 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $201 −$200 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $25 +$6 +26%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $271 +$32 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $241 +$35 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 09 $200 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $98 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $100 9h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $448 30h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $951 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $6 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $11 17d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 87¢ $169 21d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $74 22d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 52¢ $54 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $61 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $78 23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $89 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.64 · official $123.64 (match) · 125 history records