Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57f1…078a other 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$309 (-1%) realized +$62 · open −$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%76W / 18L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$175
14 days−$230
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$612
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
sports 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 21% -11.0%
≤30d 90 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 16% -10.7%
≤90d 90 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 16% -10.7%
all 94 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 15% -10.7%
10% -18.4% 2% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.5% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$57 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$371
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses76 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)94 / 109
History coverage94d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $282 $270 −$12 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $263 $266 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 63¢ 61¢ $141 $137 −$4 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 47¢ 42¢ $141 $128 −$14 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $129 $113 −$16 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $226 $2 −$225 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 +$18 +58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $170 +$6 +4%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $77 −$22 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $368 +$24 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $909 +$72 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $605 −$396 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $299 +$31 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $647 +$35 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $902 −$125 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $290 −$12 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $181 +$4 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 14 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $778 +$139 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,894 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $72 +$14 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $317 +$17 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,041 +$42 +4%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $874 −$31 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 $0 +9%
Will Mexico finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $173 +$18 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $198 +$15 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $467 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $583 +$14 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $367 +$21 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 25m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 25m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 25m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 33m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 37m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $94 38m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $47 38m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $129 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.05 · official $1,109.06 (match) · 1698 history records