Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57f0…f45b crypto 1094 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,165 (-27%) realized −$1,150 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%488W / 600L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$383
14 days−$1,151
30 days−$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$375
sports 9% +$129
other 2% −$62
world 1% −$1
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 519 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 41% -34.3%
≤30d 873 -36.8% -42.8% 34% 33% -40.7%
≤90d 1088 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 43% -16.0%
all 1088 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 43% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 43% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 42% -24.0%
15% -33.5% 39% -31.4%
20% -40.1% 34% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,150
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses488 / 600
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1088 / 1094
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1088 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +160%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$26 +182%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3500 history records