Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ee…8416 world 95 markets active 14h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$5
other 10% −$6
crypto 10% −$9
politics 5% −$3
sports 3% −$4
finance 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +24.9% +13.0% 42% 25% -17.3%
≤30d 85 +8.2% -2.1% 47% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 85 +8.2% -2.1% 47% 31% -12.3%
all 85 +8.2% -2.1% 47% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 31% -12.3%
10% -11.5% 5% -20.7%
15% -20.1% 4% -28.3%
20% -27.9% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)85 / 95
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 14¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 21¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-43%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 32¢ 75¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+133%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$2 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3 −$3 -91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -60%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 $0 -8%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -55%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 +11%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39h
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $3 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $3 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $8.93 · 360 history records