Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x57ee…bfb4 crypto 958 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$749 (+2%) realized +$749 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%717W / 241L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$26
14 days−$91
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$464
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.8% -11.1% 74% 30% -11.2%
≤30d 102 -6.1% -15.1% 70% 36% -13.2%
≤90d 398 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 38% -9.1%
all 958 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 35% -8.4%
10% -16.6% 16% -17.2%
15% -24.7% 6% -25.2%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$749
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses717 / 241
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)958 / 958
History coverage165d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 958 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$55 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $61 −$56 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10PM ET Jun 05 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12PM ET Jun 04 $58 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $67 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $70 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $63 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $64 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $53 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $44 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $71 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $54 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $32 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2275 history records