Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ea…e9e7 world 323 markets active 5d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$625 (-10%) realized −$608 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%177W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$164
14 days−$158
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$542
sports 12% +$49
other 6% +$56
politics 6% −$216
tech 3% +$18
finance 1% +$26
crypto 1% −$4
weather 0% −$6
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -26.9% -33.9% 59% 50% -63.6%
≤30d 55 -10.7% -19.2% 69% 58% -23.0%
≤90d 103 -17.8% -25.6% 64% 52% -27.5%
all 320 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 41% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 41% -18.3%
10% -21.5% 27% -26.1%
15% -29.1% 20% -33.3%
20% -36.0% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses177 / 143
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)320 / 323
History coverage146d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 58¢ 14¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $68 −$53 -78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $114 −$94 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $13 +$2 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +5%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 10 $16 +$5 +33%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $12 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $6 −$5 -82%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $25 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $22 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $17 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO5) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $26 +$8 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 +$2 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$12 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $56 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $6 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 82¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons $5 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL illwill 100¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY UNiTY esports 15¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play SELL ex-MANA eSports 91¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY ex-MANA eSports 37¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY illwill 88¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 86¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL No 95¢ $13 5d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA SELL paiN Gaming $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 90¢ $12 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 85¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $15 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ SELL Wildcard Gaming 48¢ $20 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ BUY Wildcard Gaming 28¢ $5 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ BUY Wildcard Gaming 33¢ $5 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ SELL 100 Thieves 46¢ $1 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ BUY Wildcard Gaming 55¢ $5 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ SELL 100 Thieves 36¢ $1 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 23¢ $1 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY paiN Gaming 24¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL SPARTA 100¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.49 · official $11.49 (match) · 980 history records