Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57e7…84e9 crypto 832 markets active 6d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (250 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,228 (-30%) realized −$2,221 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%406W / 782L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day249.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$146
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (250 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 803 -59.9% -63.7% 16% 14% -64.7%
≤30d 1188 -35.4% -41.5% 34% 31% -50.7%
≤90d 1188 -35.4% -41.5% 34% 31% -50.7%
all 1188 -35.4% -41.5% 34% 31% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover249.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.5% 31% -50.7%
10% ← realistic here -47.1% 24% -55.4%
15% -52.2% 17% -59.7%
20% -56.9% 10% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2,221
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses406 / 782
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1188 / 832
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day249.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$40 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$25 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$36 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.21 · official $22.21 (match) · 3500 history records