Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57e4…7bec crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$453 (-3%) realized +$1,057 · open −$1,510
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,202
crypto 27% −$1,883
world 6% +$229
finance 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +23.0% +11.3% 100% 100% +11.3%
≤30d 7 -23.6% -30.9% 29% 29% -35.0%
≤90d 22 +0.5% -9.0% 41% 41% +3.8%
all 22 +0.5% -9.0% 41% 41% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 41% +3.8%
10% -17.7% 41% -6.1%
15% -25.7% 18% -15.2%
20% -33.0% 18% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$506) neutral
Persistence
early +45% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$167 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5,056
Realized+$1,057
Unrealized−$1,510
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage53d
Avg bet$543
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $5,734 $4,710 −$1,024 (-18%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $539 $345 −$193 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 58¢ $294 $1 −$293 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 27 $831 +$191 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $848 −$688 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $162 +$88 +55%
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Jun 05 $79 −$55 -69%
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $584 −$249 -43%
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$9 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $118 −$25 -22%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 29 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 24 $728 −$664 -91%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 22 $363 −$322 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 20 $506 +$1,615 +319%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $1,199 +$1,059 +88%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 17 $103 −$23 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 17 $309 −$16 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $250 +$73 +29%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 13 $200 +$60 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $200 +$53 +26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 13 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 13 $105 −$54 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $97 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $196 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $460 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $313 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $551 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $273 12d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,771 12d
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $264 12d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,097 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $147 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $125 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes $160 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $166 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $227 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $140 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $368 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $112 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $201 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $139 21d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? SELL Yes $24 24d
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 24d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 31¢ $64 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,056.09 · official $5,056.09 (match) · 121 history records