Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57e4…d1b6
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$169 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$134 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$333
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage210d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 8 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-21%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 46¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+153%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Weili 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $106 −$105 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $20 +$75 +365%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 +$74 +73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 09 $100 −$42 -42%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$260
other 30% +$140
politics 17% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 42h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $106 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $175 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 57¢ $101 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 74¢ $97 5d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 5d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $58 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 5d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $20 35d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 56¢ $100 62d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 56¢ $100 62d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Weili 45¢ $100 210d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤30d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
all 9 +17.5% +6.3% 33% 33% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 33% -24.1%
10% -3.8% 33% -31.4%
15% -13.1% 33% -38.0%
20% -21.6% 33% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.88 · official $332.89 (match) · 232 history records