Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57e2…c50f other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$176 (-1%) realized −$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$71
14 days−$72
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$83
other 34% −$88
economics 16% −$7
politics 8% −$5
world 2% $0
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.8% -44.7% 20% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 15 -13.0% -21.3% 7% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 69 -9.0% -17.7% 26% 12% -10.8%
all 80 -7.9% -16.6% 22% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 10% -10.3%
10% -24.6% 6% -18.9%
15% -31.9% 1% -26.8%
20% -38.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage108d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 54¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $338 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $350 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $426 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $783 −$29 -4%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $75 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $6 +$1 +12%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $6 +$1 +12%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 02 $2 +$3 +166%
Magic vs. Pistons May 01 $6 +$2 +29%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $76 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $15 +$3 +23%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $473 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $380 −$1 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 46h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $73 46h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $73 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 10d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 10d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $77 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $77 17d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 17d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 17d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.89 · official $7.89 (match) · 287 history records