Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57e1…5556 crypto 509 markets active 1d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%357W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -2.5% -11.7% 72% 15% -11.7%
≤30d 187 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 14% -11.1%
≤90d 509 -4.7% -13.7% 70% 26% -12.7%
all 509 -4.7% -13.7% 70% 26% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -12.7%
10% -22.0% 10% -21.0%
15% -29.5% 6% -28.7%
20% -36.4% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses357 / 152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)509 / 509
History coverage61d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 509 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1166 history records