Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57e1…c97f sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,868 (+10%) realized +$2,877 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%101W / 86L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$480
7 days+$1,584
14 days+$2,354
30 days+$2,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$2,583
other 2% −$243
tech 0% +$15
world 0% −$11
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +10.9% +0.3% 54% 54% -2.9%
≤30d 184 +8.1% -2.2% 54% 54% -1.9%
≤90d 184 +8.1% -2.2% 54% 54% -1.9%
all 187 +7.4% -2.8% 54% 54% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 54% -1.9%
10% -12.1% 52% -11.3%
15% -20.6% 49% -19.9%
20% -28.4% 36% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$105 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$2,877
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses101 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions7
Markets (closed)187 / 194
History coverage217d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 60¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 40¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 44¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 40¢ 38¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 +$111 +48%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$54 +53%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $188 +$138 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $355 +$331 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $119 −$117 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$136 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $109 −$108 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $78 +$40 +52%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $202 +$111 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $200 −$196 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $128 −$126 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $120 −$108 -90%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $165 −$5 -3%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 +$9 +56%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $285 −$281 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$284 +140%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $205 +$116 +56%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 15 $177 −$175 -99%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $115 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $128 +$94 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $319 −$319 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$59 +96%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $71 +$52 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $147 −$145 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $286 +$69 +24%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $214 +$89 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $257 +$112 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $274 +$66 +24%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $82 −$81 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $71 +$64 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $51 14m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 16m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 40¢ $81 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $16 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 40m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 46m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 47m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $117 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $119 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $233 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 11h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $188 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $152 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 66¢ $78 15h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $102 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $200 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $67 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $128 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL HOTU 9¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.09 · official $431.09 (match) · 414 history records